On Karegeya's Assassination: Dying by the Sword

Quite a few people (activist bloggers, and journalists based in Nairobi and Kampala) have been asking for my opinion on Patrick Karegeya's assassination.

My position is quite straightforward. It is too early to accuse Kigali but it is also too early to think that Kigali is not involved. It is possible that folks within Karegeya's inner circle killed him; it is also possible that Kagame or someone close to him ordered the killing. At this stage, there is a sizeable lack of independently verified information. I look forward to learning more about the circumstances as well as the individuals involved in Karegeya's death in the coming days and weeks.

I also want to make this clear. I do not think Karegeya is a Rwandan hero. While is always a moment of sadness and reflection when a life is lost, particularly one lost to violence, it bears mentioning that Karegeya lived by the sword. He has blood on his hands from the early days of the (then rebel) RPF drive into Uganda in the late 1980s. Yes, he fell out with Kagame in 2007, but he was the head of military intelligence in Rwanda from 1994 to 2004. Karegeya oversaw the killings in Kibeho in April 1995 (which the UN tried to report in the Gersony Report but the US had its publication suppressed), among others including in a second report the US tried to suppress - the UN Group of Experts reports on DR Congo, published in 2010. Most recently, in 2013, the UN GOE published another report, which details the M23 rebellion and Rwanda's role in financing it. Many Rwandans, of all ethnicities, died at the hands of RPF/A soldiers. This is but one example of the brutality that those in the RPF ordered or directly perpetrated.

It is also important to keep in mind that men like Karegeya operate in service of other elites like him. The majority-- some 85% of the population are rural Rwandans who make their living as subsistence farmers-- are subject to the machinations of political and military elites.

Karegeya was a founding member of the Rwandan National Congress, along with other once-close allies of Rwandan president Paul Kagame. The political goals and aspirations of the RNC, for those who wish to carefully read its policy platform, is not significantly different from the current policy programs of Kagame's ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front. My analysis suggests that many of the men like Karegeya, who have fallen out with Kagame and the RPF, did so because they questioned the ways in which Kagame began to hoard political and economic power, not because they had deeply held moral views about the heavy-handedness of the RPF leadership, but rather for economic reasons.

Rwandans who have lost their lives, or their loved ones to the violent machinations and/or complicity of Karegeya, deserve better than to have him lionised as a Rwandan hero.

Rudasingwa's Political Aspirations?

For the past several months, one of the founders of the Rwanda National Congress (RNC), Theogene Rudasingwa. has made a number of statements about both his falling out with President Paul Kagame, and a series of RNC Strategies for Reforming Rwanda. All of these statements, and supporting documents can be found in Rudasingwas's Facebook page.

I am personally skeptical about Rudasingwa's sincerity and integrity. His various pleas and calls to actions are long on rhetoric and short on concrete steps to enact the necessary steps to return Rwanda to its former glory. His most recent post (cut-and-paste in full below) prompts me to write this post, as it is nothing short of a call for regime change, and is perhaps the most revealing of Rudasingwa's main posts, and media appearances. Just google his name. Much will come up. Little will be learned except insights into an individual who clearly has an axe to grind with Kagame and who manipulates international audiences in much the same way as the man he hopes to overthrow. It is a very worrying time in Rwandan politics as its elites are sabre rattling while the population starves.

"WHAT IS IN A NATIONAL ANTHEM: CAN WE FIND A SYNTHETHISED FLAG AND NATIONAL ANTHEM OF THE FUTURE RWANDAN NATION?

Both anthems are beautiful. Both evoke strong passions. Each speaks to the passing away of the old order, and the establishment of the new. Both extol the beauty of this ancient nation of Rwanda. Rwanda is our only home that we love so much that we sometimes want to deny others the right to love it. It is ok to love Rwanda Rwacu. It is ok to love Rwanda Nziza. It will be ok to love a possible Rwanda Rwacu, Rwanda Nziza, a synthesised anthem of the future free, democratic and prosperous Rwanda.

Today I am announcing two prizes, each worth 5,000 $:

1. A concept of a new Rwandan flag that incoporates some themes from the old and new Rwandan flags.

2. A new concept of lyrics and music of a new national anthem that incorporates some themes from the old and new national anthems.

Rwandans and non-Rwandans free to compete for one or both prizes.

The winners will be announced on 1st January 2013.'