On Karegeya's Assassination: Dying by the Sword

Quite a few people (activist bloggers, and journalists based in Nairobi and Kampala) have been asking for my opinion on Patrick Karegeya's assassination.

My position is quite straightforward. It is too early to accuse Kigali but it is also too early to think that Kigali is not involved. It is possible that folks within Karegeya's inner circle killed him; it is also possible that Kagame or someone close to him ordered the killing. At this stage, there is a sizeable lack of independently verified information. I look forward to learning more about the circumstances as well as the individuals involved in Karegeya's death in the coming days and weeks.

I also want to make this clear. I do not think Karegeya is a Rwandan hero. While is always a moment of sadness and reflection when a life is lost, particularly one lost to violence, it bears mentioning that Karegeya lived by the sword. He has blood on his hands from the early days of the (then rebel) RPF drive into Uganda in the late 1980s. Yes, he fell out with Kagame in 2007, but he was the head of military intelligence in Rwanda from 1994 to 2004. Karegeya oversaw the killings in Kibeho in April 1995 (which the UN tried to report in the Gersony Report but the US had its publication suppressed), among others including in a second report the US tried to suppress - the UN Group of Experts reports on DR Congo, published in 2010. Most recently, in 2013, the UN GOE published another report, which details the M23 rebellion and Rwanda's role in financing it. Many Rwandans, of all ethnicities, died at the hands of RPF/A soldiers. This is but one example of the brutality that those in the RPF ordered or directly perpetrated.

It is also important to keep in mind that men like Karegeya operate in service of other elites like him. The majority-- some 85% of the population are rural Rwandans who make their living as subsistence farmers-- are subject to the machinations of political and military elites.

Karegeya was a founding member of the Rwandan National Congress, along with other once-close allies of Rwandan president Paul Kagame. The political goals and aspirations of the RNC, for those who wish to carefully read its policy platform, is not significantly different from the current policy programs of Kagame's ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front. My analysis suggests that many of the men like Karegeya, who have fallen out with Kagame and the RPF, did so because they questioned the ways in which Kagame began to hoard political and economic power, not because they had deeply held moral views about the heavy-handedness of the RPF leadership, but rather for economic reasons.

Rwandans who have lost their lives, or their loved ones to the violent machinations and/or complicity of Karegeya, deserve better than to have him lionised as a Rwandan hero.

"Whispering Truth to Power: Everyday Resistance to Reconciliation in Postgenocide Rwanda" Just Published

My latest book, Whispering Truth to Power: Everyday Resistance to Reconciliation in Postgenocide Rwanda published by the University of Wisconsin Press, is now available in both paperback and e-copy. The Press will consider reviews by prominent bloggers (I have no idea what they mean by 'prominent') so if you are interested in providing a review, please let me know and I'll try to get a copy to you. I am excited about this publication as it represents almost ten years of research and writing.

Ntganda's surrender: Let's not forget a few things....

My twitter feed is alive with speculation and opinion on Ntganda's pre-arrest/surrender in Kigali on Monday. I have been using twitter less and less as the rumour mill and reality are regularly divorced, making following those with claimed expertise on the conflict in DRC, politics in Rwanda, etc, etc hard to stomach, and even harder to interpret. Your number of followers or regularity of your tweets does not equate with accuracy or influence, people! My own take on Ntganda's surrender to the Americans in Kigali is to remind everyone that Rwanda is a master of grand strategy. Do not discount the notion that Kagame and other senior RDF officers knew well before we did what was going on. At the same time, don't overlook that Kagame is regularly and loudly critical of the ICC, calling it a form of neo-colonialism. (And he has a point there - ICC justice is pretty flawed for all kinds of reasons). Don't reify leadership and other state actors. Yes, it is important and useful to consider the motivations and interests of Kagame and Nkunda and Kabila and Museveni and so and so on. But so are local actors, local dynamics and local interests. Don't forget to drill down behind the headline, behind what you think you know. And don't forget that Kagame and his RPF as masters of grand strategy, whether military or public relations. Remember when Rudasingwa, Gahima, Karegeya and Nyamwasa defected/exiled and started their Rwandan National Congress Party? Same kind of speculation, and we learned little new expect that Rwandans elite political class remains disconnected from local realities. Only certain types of people matter in Rwanda, and the RNC has reinforced this in adopting a platform and rhetoric that is basically Arusha Accords redux. Indeed, Gahima just published a book that could have really illuminated and opened up discussion and debate on RPF crimes before, during and after the genocide (and more). But he didn't take the route, and Ntganda probably won't either. Don't overlook that legal standards of evidence and full disclosure for purposes of national reconciliation and individual healing are vastly difference. Even if Ntaganda sings, how much will we really learn? Remember Major General Rose Kabuye's arrest in Europe in December 2008? Kigali feigned outrage, forcing protests about the illegality and injustice of her arrest in Kigali (who is truly allowed to protest, with English signage in Rwanda?). Then we learned that Kagame and company, thanks to the rules of French legal procedure that they learned of the scope and nature of the charges against Kagame himself, and other senior members of the RPF? Kabuye was scapegoated, and so could be Ntaganda. All I am saying is that there is a broader trend of RPF manipulation and control embedded in Ntaganda's surrender. Don't forget that. And don't fail to pleasantly surprised if everything I just said turns out to be wrong. Maybe Ntaganda will share what he knows as part of a plea bargain and we will finally have enough to begin the indictment process for members of the RPF.

AWOL but not Absent

It has indeed been a while since I posted. This does not mean that I have failed to follow and react to current events. Instead, everything from Rwanda's alleged support for M23 rebels in neighboring Congo to Victoire Ingabire's politicized and dare I say sham legal trial and everything in between. I remain deeply concerned about peasant livelihoods as the government's drive to "modernize" results in increased physical and emotional insecurity for many rural residents. I have been writing a lot, and can now share that I have a book coming out next year on peasant resistance to the postgenocide policy of national unity and reconciliation, and have contracted for a second one to come out in late 2014/early 2015. This second book will assess the sustainability of Rwanda's postgenocide development, justice and reconciliation policies. I am excited for both works to emerge so we can continue the debate on why the RPF needs to open up Rwanda's political space. In the meantime, see this SSRN piece by Ciara Aucoin is one of the best I've seen in a while. Please read and share widely if you agree.

Kinyarwanda-language Poetry Books

This morning, I received a message from Dr Froduald Harelimana asking me to publicize his new collections of Kinyarwanda-language poetry. Nkuzimanire (ISBN # 978-0-98597-781-8) and Bihige (ISBN # 978-0-98597-780-1) are available from the author directly here at 20$ each. You can reach the author, Dr. Harelimana, here.

Old wine in older bottles? Rwanda's Information Economy

I have been pretty silent of late despite all the activity and news coming out of Rwanda in last few months. The M23 rebellion is big news, as is the symbolic cutting of aid to Rwanda. Two comments here. The M23 rebellion is not a surprising development to those of us who follow the region and its politics, and it has been analysed well on the http://congosiasa.blogspot.com/ blog. The Atlantic also published a useful piece asking what took the US so long to react and why is it doing so little now that it has cut aid to Kigali. There is an interesting development in the ways that Kigali is managing its PR machine around its presumed role in the M23 rebellion, the UN Group of Experts report, and the cutting or reconsideration of aid by key donors to Rwanda-- the US and UK among them. The trend to watch is whether or not Kigali, through its traditional posse of social media trolls, will continue to believe that it has a monopoly over Rwanda's information economy. Will it dig in its heels and continue with ad hominen attacks that do little to elevate the space for sincere dialogue and action to resolve the 'Congo' issue? Early analysis of the blogosphere suggests it will. Old tracts of the FDLR threat to Rwanda's peace and security are trotted out as the primary rationale for Rwanda's continued presence in the DRC. The personal attacks on Steve Hege (Coordinator of the UN Group of Experts) are recycled from the playbook that suppressed the Gersony Report in 1994, and sought to suppress the October 2010 UN report that linked Rwanda the acts of genocide in the Congo. (See Alex Engwete's post on Hege here). In other words, there is nothing new in Kigali's information management tactics. I think Rwanda's old wine in older bottles approach to managing its public image for international audiences is a sign of weakness. The regime is not in control of its PR machine simply because so few of us buy into the narrative. Kigali's inability/unwillingness to concede space suggests that the government is not in its usual comfortable position of maintaining total control. The RPF can't let the genie out of the bottle, lest attempts to remain in control of its own destiny threaten to unhinge it....

On the 18th Anniversary: Lack of Inclusiveness in Rwanda an Issue

Lack of Inclusiveness in Rwanda Could Breed Potential Conflict

Saturday April 7, 2012, marks the 18th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide. In 1994, Hutu militias and civilians targeted their Tutsi neighbours, friends and colleagues, killing at least 500,000 Tutsis in just 100 days. It was the worst case of genocidal violence since the Nazi holocaust.

Because it must never again happen, now is a good time to reflect on the lives of the Rwandans that lived through the genocide—the 85 percent of the population that lived in the country during the civil war (1990-1994).

It is worth noting that Rwandans of all ethnicities—Tutsi, Hutu and Twa—were caught up in the maelstrom of violence in 1994. Undeniably, the Tutsi were targeted solely because of their ethnicity. That the Tutsi died in great numbers is well established in both the academic and policy literatures. Lesser known, in part because the ruling Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) government denies their experiences, are the countless stories of survival and succour of ordinary peasant Rwandans of Hutu ethnicity who took extraordinary risks to protect Tutsi they knew. These stories include instances where notorious killers protected Tutsi they knew personally, ushering them safely through roadblocks, warning them of the whereabouts of marauding groups, and even hiding them at their homes. Some individuals killed during the day, but at night, they would shelter and hide Tutsi friends and relatives. In this way, many Tutsi survived because of help from a Hutu family member, friend, colleague, neighbour, or stranger.

To acknowledge that Rwandans of all ethnicities suffered various forms of violence during the genocide does not diminish the horror, gravity, or the meaning of the genocide against the Tutsi. Instead, it situates the events of 1994 in a larger landscape of violence, one in which peasant Rwandans were disproportionately affected when they were targeted by armed groups and militias. It also highlights the injustice that many peasant Rwandans feel in the face of government efforts to impose a single version of how the genocide happened and what needs to be done to recover from it. This government version does not take into account the various standpoints of genocide survivors, perpetrators, survivors of atrocities led by the RPF rebels (who now hold power), bystanders, Rwandans in the diaspora, and so on. In addition, the government presents a simplistic version of the cause of the 1994 genocide; identity politics grounded in decades of bad governance resulted in deep-rooted ethnic hatred of all Tutsi by all Hutu.

Eighteen years after the genocide, the silencing of the physical and emotional violence that the majority of Rwandans experienced during the genocide do more than erase their suffering; it also allows their economic and political grievances against the ruling RPF to accumulate. The vast majority of peasant Rwandans who survived the genocide are poor, politically marginal, and traumatized by what they experienced during the genocide. Many lack clean water, adequate food, affordable health care and education. To add insult to injury, the government does not allow for frank and open discussion of the genocide. Discourse on the genocide is reduced to making the Hutu tell the truth about what they did during the genocide, and make the Tutsi to forgive their Hutu aggressors. In essence, reconciliation is not a sincere affair of the heart; it is an administrative matter.

As Rwanda marks the 18th anniversary of the genocide, there are two things that the ruling RPF can do to encourage a more open and inclusive political culture that both brings in peasant experiences of violence while creating a more economically equal society. First, President Kagame should create space for national dialogue – an open and safe space where Rwandans of all ethnicities, and from all walks of life, can meet to discuss what happened to whom during the genocide, and to strategize ways forward from the hurt of the past. As Olive, a Hutu widow whose Tutsi husband died during the genocide said, ‘Hutu confess to get free. But we know what happened! We were there in 1994. Not all who killed get justice – the government pardons them for reconciliation. Not all who didn’t kill go free – the government puts them in prison for reconciliation. What kind of peace is this? It is not from the heart.’

Second, the government needs to develop policies to equitably manage Rwanda's natural resources (its people and its land). The U.S. State Department estimates that by 2020 Rwanda will be home to some 13 million people. With 225 people per square mile, it has the highest population density in Africa. Land pressures in rural Rwanda are intense. The government requires rural farmers to grow coffee and tea instead of the crops needed to feed their families. A new land policy has decreased peasant holdings to less than a half-acre. The RPF does not allow peasant farmers to voice their concerns about its agricultural policy and the inequitable ways in which land is distributed into the hands of government loyalists.

On this 18th anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, it is imperative that the lived experiences of peasants before, during and after the events of 1994 be incorporated into government policy and practice, lest the toll of growing socio-economic inequity and the daily injustices that many peasants experience make another round of mass political violence possible.